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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  September 2, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EDT

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now. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. steve leaseman. andrew is off today. we are counting down to the august jobs report. comes out 8:30 a.m. eastern time. payrolls increased by 188,000 in august. the unemployment rate is expected to tick down a tenth of 1% to 4.8 %. we keep saying this is an important number. this time around it might actually be important. odds are the feds watching this very closely and could ride on this number today, whether or not they decide to raise rates later this month. more on this in just a moment. in the meantime check out u.s. equity futures. essentially flat lining.
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everybody waiting to see what happens. 8:30 a.m. s&p futures down by less than a point. the nasdaq up by 1.5. yesterday you saw the nasdaq close down by basically it was flat. it was down 0.9 points or something. it was flat. dow and nasdaq did manage to eke out gains. check out what happens overnight in asia. the nikkei looks like it was flat lining as well. up 3.5%. shanghai comp and hang sang both a little bit higher. in europe, you'll see thing are relatively positive if evfor th major averaging at least. dax up slightly. and let's take a look at crude oil. this was the wbig story yesterday. major pull back for crude oil prices. we have had people who have told us this week that crude was going to come down because of
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seasonality issues. we did see numbers this week. that has put pressure on wti. now to the weather. hermine has downgraded to a tropical storm, but not before becoming the first hurricane to make land fall in florida since 2005. the storm brought 80-mile-per-hour winds and rain. the east coast all the way up to new jersey bracing for what is next. we'll get a live update from the weather channel later in the show. i need to learn how to say hermine. >> hermine, it's a different name. >> she's a famous person now. big time actress now after starting in that as a little kid. it's not her -- why didn't they -- what's a hermine. i've never heard. >> it's a different name. >> is it a name? >> yes. >> lady fed president.
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>> loretta,ester, we need a hermine. >> hawk or dove. >> see whether they cause a storm today. >> we have you here. >> for that reason. >> it's a big day. >> andrew is out anyway, but we could have had somebody else conceivably. >> is that your definition of a welcome basket. >> yes, take it. >> as good as it's going to get. >> strange strawberry preserves. >> can i go on? >> good morning, joe. here are big corporate storying we're watching today. samsung halting galaxy note. batteries have exploded or caught fire while charging. found 35 cases. 35 of problems like that with the battery cells. offer a global exchange program for phones that have already been sold. samsung says about two weeks to
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prepare replacement. the shares -- i guess that's today because yesterday they got really crushed. a potential $10 billion deal on the market. hewlett-packard enterprises reportedly looking for a buyer for software unit. in talks with the buyout firm tomo bravo. according to reuters, hp has already received offers at about 7.5 billion and those shares this morning not moving much. up a little bit as you can see yesterday. >> august turned out to be a good month for bill iek man. this is the flip side. you live by the sword, die by the sword. he has been pushing for change. seems to be paying off because the shares rose 30%.
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that was the stock when he was on last week. was it last week? >> yes. >> bought of herbalife, but so he mentioned he never thought he would be in a stock down 90%. 90%, it's hard to ride that down. it's up a little. up 30%. and he said he's up for the month. per strks hing is still track to lose more than 14%. the only thing good about that is -- he should have to pay you 20% of the 14%. >> yes. >> definitely have to get back to -- some of these guys close down the ones they're never going to get back. they get that 20%. >> the ones are planning to stick in there and plan to get high water marks. >> it's six years of under
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performance for these masters of universe. for me it's gratifying because you think, wow, i'm not nearly as smart as these guys. how do they do it year in and year out. the ones who do have success, it's galgorithms. >> trading, massi iive baskets. >> no one -- >> being a value investor and looking at things. >> if you're 51%, you're good. that's all you ever aim for. these guys who have these marquee years a couple years in a row and then drop off the radar, you don't hear. >> you guys are making the argument for index invests. >> which is what we have to do at cnbc so something to be said for our very strong conflict of interest policies. >> your work in forecasting the job cast numbers is at best 50%. i'm not insulting you, but when
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you come up with your number sometimes you're 100,000 offer. >> that's the margin of error. i pray for being within 50. that's my hope. it is within 50. >> what happened last month? >> last month i was off. >> you were off last month. >> i tell you. >> the month before you were on. >> the entire street ufs off. >> even with adp you can't come close. what's your number this time? 177? >> i got 142 this month. >> below adp. why? >> because the manufacturing number which plays too big a role in my model was lame. >> was below 50. >> i use ism manufacturing employment component which can do a good job. the claim's numbers help. the adp number helps. i didn't have the ism services. >> you have to look at a piece of the journal day. just the other day, we were
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arguing about whether the drop in the participation rate was just retired people. the idol army. >> you're supporting my argument. >> back in the last year of the great depression in 1940, americans employed between the ages of 25-54 was 86.4%. now it's 84.4. >> down 2 percentage points. >> lower than it was at the end of the depression for participation rate of men 25-54. it's an abysmal number for people in that age. >> you're talking about men because women have entered the workforce. >> far be it for me to be any type of gender. >> she makes a good point. >> i'm glad you're here. >> the demographics have changed drastically. >> i'm glad you're here. i'm glad michelle is here.
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alison is here. is that really -- you're blaming women. >> no demographics have changed. >> my wife works now. my daughter works. i've got everybody working sglg if they didn't work, there would be more jobs for men, joe. >> you said that, not me. >> that's what you're arguing. >> the world is a better place. we need women decision making ability. men, you know what they're thinking about most of the time. >> football. after that finish thinking about that other stuff every seven seconds. pro bulls are looking for the job report to put the case back for better second half growth. putting back on track after the disappointing manufacturing report yesterday. the manufacturing index which went into negative contraction nare territory has been seen by some as an aberration and warning of a recession by others. here's what to watch for today.
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nonfarm payrolls. average hourly earnings number. expect to be up 0.2%. that would be a tenth lower than the gain last month. some of the data has been positive. adp as we talked about has come out. the economic data so far pointing to a decedent second half rebound of around 2.5 to 3%. together with inflation. that's at least not falling even though it's below the fed's 2% target rate. a decedent job number could be enough to give the fed a green light to hike. some doves could oppose such a move and the rest of the data has to cooperate in september for the fed to hike. >> september 20 is the actual date. >> we have a retail sales report, cpi report. bunch of other data. this is not the only thing going. it's a necessary precondition of the fed is going to hike. my own thing is how does a fed chair who says in august the
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case is strengthening for a hike, if she gets a good job's report and good other data that points to a 2 or 3% growth rate in the quarter, how does she not hike in september. i don't see what the excuse would be for not doing that. >> let's bat this around the table. we're going be in alison jer regard. michelle. what do you think with this. the ism number was weak. if you're looking at manufacturing it's contractings and thinking about raising rates which would in turn hike the dollar and put pressure on things. is that enough for them to say maybe we need to hold off another month. >> or, again, what's the urgency? i guess in janet yellen's mind who is probably more cautious than some of the others on the committee, the question probably is is there an urgency to move as you said there are some signs with the ism. auto sales pulled back a lot of talk. there's some signs that maybe we're kind of losing a bit of
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momentum and more importantly on the inflation front, we saw on monday with the numbers they like to look at on inflation, we're not making further progress. we've been stuck on the core inflation rate. i think we're going to get an hourly earnings number today that's going to be lower. i think we also are going to get a relatively benign cpa. what's the urgency to act if we're not quite sure. >> except that want the get points on the board and preserve the credibility. am i right with that. >> i think those are two really good points. the fed, michelle, is in a hiking mode. >> yes. >> they are in a large normalization. >> you have to hike rates to be in a hiking mode. >> nine months on pause. >> honestly all the arguments for raising interest rates could have been made and should have been made a year or two years ago. what i'm kind of questioning now
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is is the move at point. you're two years closer perhaps in terms of the economy -- to me looks less robust now than it did a year ago. it's more vulnerable to the global situation itself in the wake of brexit is less clear. >> but if you missed your opportunity, does that mean don't go for it. >> is that the question. exactly. have they missed that window. if you only think you have to go because the neutral rate is lower. you think you only need to go once or twice. is it worth the effort. >> the market backs up michelle. 23% chance of hike. >> i agree with michelle. i don't think the number is going to come at 180. the statistics strung. on top of it you had the auto numbers. we are consumer driven economy, i think the fed does wait to the end of the year. what's the rush. at this point, expectations are
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low anyway. >> what about the possible accusation they're overly influenced by the election? >> i don't get that sense. they've been clear. i think the other thing is data has opinion very inconsistent. they said nine months ago considering hikes and brexit. we've had all the events happen to make you think we have an economy that's pretty shaky and it wouldn't be that advised. >> what about the idea the fed -- i keep reading this too. they're not influenced by that, but influenced by the market. if the fed futures are pointsing to only 23% chance they don't want to shock the market. is that fair or is that not? steve, you know this too. >> i think the fed has multiple ways of getting the message out to the market to adjust market expectations. >> they've been job owning a lot. the more frekt frequently they do that and don't follow through the less effective. >> it's up to the data to meet the job owning in a way.
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kernen, why don't you weigh in here. you're the one clam minoring for the rate hike. >> exhausted. preaching to the choir. >> joe and i are in the same camp. waiting and waiting. >> you've given up the ghost. >> michelle, i'm mad it will dollars. sometimes you have to do things that have negative near term consequences just to do what you have to do. >> i agree with you on that. i also think clawing back a little bit of ammunition for the future. you haven't mentioned this. when i hear a guy like the boston fed president say that he is starting to worry more about the financial stability aspects of low rates and if cost of that outweighs the potential benefit, i'm not sure the market is entirely listening to that. zerk a voter this year.
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he is one pounding the table for low eer rates and that doesn't change your mind? >> honestly, this fed could very well -- i don't know if they'll hike in september or december. i just think it's at the wrong time. i think the case was much stronger a year or two ago and to me, things look -- and as a rule, i tend to be pretty optimistic. i'm more worried about the economy than at any point. not that we're going necessarily into a recession, but we're more vulnerable now. even though rates are low and hiking once or twice doesn't necessarily hurt, but you know to the extent it may in any way provide another headwind at a time we may be getting vulnerable by the sheer age of expansion and what's going on globally, to me it would be the icing on the cake they end up doing it now. >> why should we believe there's something to the age of
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expansion. >> you're absolutely right. this cycle has been so different. a lot of the things we would talk about in terms of being late cycle don't apply. housing is clearly not late cycle even though we're so far in, but we are at a point where it's hard to envision employment going to suddenly ratchet up from here. >> you can't have it both ways. either you got the it's take then long or you have an extra five years. if you believe in that and that's why we're still slow or we're doing something self inflicted. >> i think we're coming -- it's the husband. his wife. >> coming off of a big crisis, a situation where there's a tremendous amount of leverage in society and i don't think it's that late. we have more time and the recovery has been so tepid. >> it's hard to figure out what the imptous would be for the company to suddenly pick up. it doesn't have to pick up from
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two to three. even going at two. >> i could think of a lot of ways to pick up. you get a new president. >> fiscal policy would be the easiest. >> are you talking about the same thing. when you sail fiscal policy. >> corporate tax reform. tax regulation. >> tax reforms, tax cuts. more stimulus that way. probably more through infrastructure, but in beoth candidates. we need a better policy than right now. >> we're at zero interest rates there's worse things than some infrastructure projects. we need the regulation. they're still coming. hundreds of billions of dollars or added regulations over the last seven or eight years. >> absent that sort of change. that's what i'm saying. it's hard to think about what companies. we've hired a lot of workers already t. >> at least obamacare worked out for your steve. got to go. >> coming up, more joe kernen.
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donald trump bringing some new blood to his campaign. details next. still ahead, jobs friday. the company's ceo is here to tell us which sectors are hiring and which ones are firing. "squawk box" will be right back. [cheg] the hidvce4.
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>> coming up, more joe kernen.
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welcome back to "squawk box." donald trump has named david bossy as new campaign manager. gop nominee telling "the washington post" that bossie is smart, loves politics and knows how to win. august was a big fund raising month for the clinton campaign. raking in $143 million last month. a 58% jump from july. however, the donations to her campaign remaining flat in both july and august. the campaign raised about 62 medic million indicating the increase was large contributions to the democratic party itself. donald trump's campaign has not released august fund raising numbers. and the g20 meeting kicks off on sunday in china. we're getting more inside on some of the topics that will be discussed. president obama is expected to talk to world leaders about limiting corporate tax avoidance strategies and creating a fair global tax system. let's get to john harwood
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with an update from the campaign trail. i assume most of that 150 or whatever it was was raised domestically since foreign entities aren't allowed to directly. >> that's a good assumption, joe. >> you can't do it. you've got to go to the foundation. you can't go into the actual coffers for the campaign. i wish they would release the other stuff. that's what i would like to see. >> reporter: we're in the close of the dog days of summer. we're about to start the last chapter of the campaign. the most important of which in a little over three weeks from now are the debates. we're really going to get to it will point which donald trump is going to see if he can breakthrough, if he can ralt hillary clinton, if he can do something to overcome the lead, which has gotten smaller, but still substantial. and as steve's intro just indicated. we've got this amazing contrast in the campaigns. hillary clinton running a by the
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book campaign. collect a lot of cash, advertising battleground state. donald trump doing a lot less of those things and with a free wheeling band that includes steve bannon and bossie. did battle with bill and hillary clinton for a long time. it's a very unusual. none of us have seen anything like it matchup and we're going to find out whether donald trump's unorthodox strategy is going to pay off. >> she does think she has the lead. >> she does have the lead. >> i know. okay. she must have the lead because she's not scheduled to do anything again for another four or five days, john. >> reporter: that's exactly the point. >> hasn't answered any questions from reporters for 270 plus days. >> reporter: that's one of the weirdness of this cycle. you've got a convention nominee
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who thinks her opponent. >> hof course he's going to say something. that's a safe strategy. a lot of times too much defense. >> reporter: i'm agreeing with you. my point is if they stay out of the way, if they turn the volume down and let donald trump turn the volume up, that's going to benefit them. >> in this campaign, it's been the candidate who talks the most at any given point that the polls don't favor. >> reporter: right. you've got this situation where if the elections about her that's bad for her. if it's about him, that's bad for him. donald trump doesn't seem to have the same ability or desire to keep the focus on her. >> one could make a point. >> reporter: he attracts attention. >> one point beyond the right campaign strategy and right thing to do is. one of the right things for hillary clinton to do is face the press and answer questions.
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just like it's wrong for. >> sure. agreed. >> we can talk about campaign strategies all we want. we can talk about the right thing to do. >> the public needs it. >> from a public point of view. that's the to face the press. >> i'm with you. >> okay. >> you could say the same thing about candidates. >> tax returns. >> it's not necessarily the right thing to do. >> it is absolutely the right thing to do. >> let's say he takes all the real estate deductions, you know how long you're going to talk about it. >> whatever, joe. it's been done by every single candidate. >> whatever, i wouldn't do it. if there's no. >> you're making argument why hillary won't talk to the press. >> more than halfway anything. not on this. >> it's not about policy.
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fidelity- where smarte investors will aays s . welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. this is cnbc. first the business worldwide. take a look at the equity futures this hour. things are flat. . awaiting the number at 8:30. when we get the jobs report. that will set the tone of the day for the markets. dow down less than 2 points. same story with the s&p 500. the nasdaq down less than 1 point.
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we'll see what happens when we get closer to the 8:30 mark. >> the hot number will probably be negative. >> negative. >> negative for the markets. >> because they're going to go. and it's we're going to see the true perverse logic of the crack addict average trader. really doesn't want the punch bowl taken away, even at this point. >> no. >> you think if it's 300, the market goes up. >> ultimately. >> this latest. >> knee jerk negative on that. >> this latest malaise started with the first guy. the composer, john williams, was he the first one. >> san francisco. >> who started with september live again. >> him and dudly. then we started seeing this. the market can't get out of it. >> longer term the market is going to like jobs and growth. >> i know that.
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near term these guys are still, we can't take a quarter point hike. >> that's another reason to hike. >> yes. >> to get it over with. >> begin the weaning process. >> cold turkey. >> i hope some day we don't look back on this and say it was so obvious there was a monetary bubble brewing on market. negative interest rates. >> i'm really interested in this idea that one of the arguments is that simultaneously, the greed trade and the fear trade are overvalued. >> what do you mean? >> everybody is piled into these bonds. $13 trillion of negative interest rate bonds. like they're scared. and then the idea that the psychotstock market is overvalued. >> both at the same time. >> both bonds and stocks are overvalued. i don't know. i think there's a lot of people -- my take is there are more people more afraid than
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greedy. >> the stock market is only overvalued if the bond market stops being overvalued. as long as the bond market is overvalid, you're goi overvalued, you have a hope for return. when other things. >> by the way, that's another reason animating some fed thinking out there of what's going to happen to the pension plans. that's something i've been hearing. >> savers. you've been -- can't use that word. you've been all over. not caring about them at all. >> dumping all over them. >> that's not the word you were thinking. you should be honest with people, joe. >> taking a dump all over them. >> stocks to watch today, verphone cutting fourth quarter
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outlook. third quarter revenue missed estimates. lululemon beating analyst estimate. fell short. store traffic was challenging in the quarter, but customers are making larger purchases. cooper companies raising annual guidance following better than expected results. the medical device maker says cfo will retire at the end of october. >> as we count down to the monthly jobs report, it's time to get a breakdown of where the jobs are from one of the nation's leading staffing and recruiting firms. placed over 100,000 professionals. also a member of ypo. exclusive cnbc partner. give me the overall landscape. is it a good time to be looking for work right now if you're a professional. >> if you have a job set people want. it's always a supply and demand situation. if you're in data analytics.
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things are good. look what walmart announced. they're going to cut 7,000 jobs or move to retail sales. if you're going to battle amazon, you can't do did online with your technology, you're going have to do it on the floor with people walking, customer interaction. >> how would you describe overall the job market? we've had three month average job gains of 190,000. is this a strong job market, lukewarm job market. weak market? >> i think it's a very steady consistent job market. it's not 2005. you take out the blip which a big blimp in 2009. you take that out, we've gone from 2001 for 15 years of consistent growth and if the great recession were that bad, the economy wouldn't be -- i'm not saying it's great now, but it wouldn't be as good as it is. unemployment is still 9
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percenta.4%. we've also had an 8% with bad participation rate. >> it's better than that. >> all things being equal, it's not terrible. >> what is it like if i want the leave a job and negotiate for a higher salary. if i'm going -- used to be go laterally and make a little money. >> correct. i don't think that's as strong as it has been. that's the effects of the global economy. you're not competing against the guy across the street. you're competing against the guy across the ocean. >> that's your argument against globalization which has played a key roll in the election. >> it is. if the economy is so bad, how does hillary clinton have a record donation. >> wealthy people who have jobs. >> they're also giving to bernie sanders earlier in the year. >> $27. >> but who is giving that money? there are people that have money. there is consumer confidence is increasing. there are some signs. i'm not saying i'm putting all my money in the stock market
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right now if we hadn't had the housing market bubble would we be as paranoid as we were now. >> shock and learned a little. >> maybe we didn't. >> does that fear in our immediate rearview mirror animate employers today in terms of the risks they're willing to take in hiring. >> if in terms of bringing on more people. >> the number one thing we have to look at from an employer and sure capitalism basis is employing are not a fixed cost. they can be terminated any time. it's not a real estate deal. i'm just telling you what reality is. you can cut employees any time you want. >> there's pain that goes with it. hard for the company. exxon has cut back on hiring because he's been through cycles like this before. >> they're the most profitable industry we've ever seen. >> how do you explain capital expenditures being down. >> you can't. you're exactly right. >> very high cash levels.
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a lot of money and profits, but they're not spending on capital. >> they will hire people right now. the big thing we're going to see is companies that hierm a lot of post college graduates. december 1 we have the overtime exemption increase. we also had the minimum wage being increased. artificial increases. these are real things. >> what's your outlook, tom? >> right now i'm positive. i think things are good. increase in minimum wage. >> what people look for and they think, oh, nothing bad happened a month after minimum wage was increased. it's not a month. it's six months, eight months, a year. >> great stuff, tom. >> what's going on. >> going over to this other place. >> you have energy. good information. i'm sorry for my colleagues and
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how they insulted you. >> he we went to bolder. i'm okay. >> i'm just glad things are going to suck two years from now when we're at 80%. we're only at 70% now. coming up, ups shipping rates. plus new details on yesterday's space exexplosion that destroyed facebook's first satellite and a really nice rocket. that's a reusable rocket. last one came back and landed. this one landed in about a million pieces. quick check on european markets right now.
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welcome back to "squawk box." it will soon cost more to send a package by ups. this is going to start september 19. hiking by an average of 5%. similar increase will go into effect for daily ground and air service. that won't start until late december. ups saying the increase is in line with yearly hikes and move
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will help pay for system upgrades and expansions. >> just in time for the holidays when everybody is shipping everything. >> yes, but the keyword there is everybody. if it was just ups, then you'd say, well, maybe they shouldn't do that. >> guess fedex and across the board. >> if they do, they do. if they don't, it doesn't stick. that's the way it is supposed to work. unlike the epipen where there's one. >> right. update on yesterday's space explosion. we now know elon musk was fueling unmanned rocket when the blast occurred. the company was completing a routine prep to launch tomorrow. no one was hurt, but the blast destroyed facebook's satellite to deliver internet to africa. >> zuckerberg put out a statement saying he was deeply
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disappointed. trying to expand internet access in that continent. huge setback. >> what does it take, two years, three years. >> you're not going to be able to turn around. >> based on the idea they had other technologies they've been working on, there's no replacement that's coming any time soon. >> pretty amazing. we had buzz aldrin on yesterday. another astronaut on today. everybody makes it clear that private funding of this is much cheaper. much easier than government and it's going to happen. it's going to be a lucrative business, but expectations were pretty high and this is the beginning stages. you know, when you're talking man and everything else, they don't know what happened here. >> if you look at the auto industry in the infancy, how much is this like that. in terms of fiktss and starts and they don't get down to a production process. >> it puts us in a tricky position because we have stopped doing this with nasa. nasa was contracting with space
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ex. now putting questions whether they'll be able to get stuff to the international space station. >> it can be done. i wouldn't overstate nasa either. they have had their share of misses. the general idea that the private sector should be better and more efficient at this makes a lot of sense. >> it's also we stopped our projects before the private sector. >> when it was ready to go. >> that's going to be years eas fund things than with the government. >> remember, there were reasons why we did this on a government funded basis. there wasn't necessarily a profit motive behind it. coming up, we'll talk about it. astronauts using tools that weren't made in america or on earth and space. manufacturing has big implications for telecom and health care. detail next plus a live interview with astronaut terry
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burst. "squawk box" coming back from space. right back. . . this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. to win, every millisecond matters. both on the ack and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inchthe car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to ol your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 icks giving them e agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. our special today is the don't you hate that? when they don't tell you how much something costs and you ha to ask? maybe that's w i alwa make sure to...
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welcome back, everybody. a news maker from china this morning interviewing chinese tech of search engine baidu. >> i was able to meet president xi three times over the last year or so. i got the idea that president xi realizes that internet is very, very important. it's also good for china's economic growth. >> we'll have more from the robin li interview later this morning. also on if you want to check it out ahead of time. or next edition of mission space takes us to the heart of silicon valli. aditi joins us now. >> reporter: we are on the campus here of the ames research center in mountain view.
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everyone knows that 3d printers aren't new, but their use in space is. just two years ago this company that's based in silicon valley made in space launched the first ever 3d printer to the international space station. it let astronauts print a tool they needed. in doing so, they didn't have to wait for a shuttle to bring one from earth. the process takes just a few hours and makes living, working, and building in space a whole lot cheaper and more efficient. >> if we want to actually colonize space, if we want to permanently live in orbit, on the moon or on mars, we need to take the ability to manufacture things with us. just like the settlers when they came out west. they took tools to build industry. >> reporter: but made in space is thinking bigger with plans to manufacture goods in space and ship them back down to earth. their newest partners include
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fiberoptical fiber. it's ten times faster than the fiber made on earth. which means huge opportunities for communications, health care, and manufacturing companies where high speed can mean high margins. made in space also plans to launch a free floating 3d printer. the printer will be used to build large scale structures like a building up in space. and made in space says these technologies aren't that far off. first round of fiber in 2017 and the company just signed with nasa to work on the printer over the next couple years. >> wow. aditi, can -- i have complex questions. maybe i'll wait for our guests but is it the lack of gravity or the potential to do things in a vacuum without any, you know, sort of contamination whatsoever that makes it so appealing to do things up there? both? >> reporter: yeah, you know, i mean it's probably a little bit.
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the fiber thing is fascinating because you can build it here but somehow and i think it's a science beyond all of us right now, but the fiber made up there is just so much faster and stronger and durable and able to, you know, process it ten times faster. it really is interesting. >> thank you, aditi. our next guest spent time as a commander of the international space station. let's bring in terry vertz who just retired from nassau last week. terry holds the record for taking the most pictures from space than any astronaut. over 3,000. he's also featured in the imax film "a beautiful planet." thanks for being with us. i was going to just kid you saying i know a lot of these problems because i saw "the martian" with matt damon and i saw how he had to deal with these things. that probably -- even though i'm kidding -- there were a lot of things brought up in that movie
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that you'd have to deal with. is there a way to produce oxygen or you have to bring it with you. you could produce it somehow? >> well, on board the space station, we have a pretty complicated recycling system that recycles water and turns it into oxygen. then it takes the oxygen and carbon dioxide we breathe and has a close loop system. it costs $10,000 a pound to launch things into space and water and oxygen are pretty heavy. so it saves quite a bit of money doing that. >> and i was thinking it would be nice if a 3d printer can make a tomato. but we can't do that yet, can we? food you've got to always bring, right? >> food you have to bring up from earth. we did have an experiment called veggie that was basically a green house and we grew some lettuce in space. the crew after me got to eat some lettuce grown in space which was pretty cool. >> how did you fertilize it?
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>> for the most part we brought our own food. >> you really have that ask that. seeing the martian. >> we ate better than matt damon did on mars. >> it must be -- is it true i guess you have to be there? outs of how incredible it is to be there personally, how close can we get to it with the imax film or with your pictures? can we get pretty close? >> so the imax film "beautiful planet" is just amazing. in my point of view, it's the best way to see space without going there. the cool thing about this movie is we used digital cameras from for the first time. tony meyers has been the producer for a whole series of space imax films and this was her last one. and the ability was to take shots at night. i was able to bring a gopro camera out with me on a spacewalk. which after i saw the footage
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and what tony did with it, i thought that was dangerous. i don't know what i was thinking going outside like that. but she did a great job. it kind of brings you to space better than anything i've seen. >> you've been up there more than most people and done more space walks than most. i mean, the first couple times, does the pit of your stomach ever just feel like this is no big deal when you're stepping outside? >> you know, i've had amazing opportunities to fly jet fighters and the chance to fly 42 space shuttle. but when i went out on my first space walk, that was definitely something unique. we went out -- it was nighttime and going out the hatch is a big operation because you're wearing a big 400 pound space suit, got lots of equipment. i remember going out and seeing the earth. >> i can imagine. i can definitely fertilize the lettuce after stepping out. thank you for everything you did and good luck. hope to see you again. >> thank you. when we come back, more on
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global markets pras for the jobs data. investors will be hanging on for the numbers for clues on the rate hike timing. we preview the data and get you ready for the trading day ahead. mylan under fire again. calling for a bofrd shakeup. they're major investors and he will join us within the hour. and hurricane season kicks into high gear. hermine making landfall in florida. an update on the storm's track and possible costs straight ahead. as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now.
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live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. this is cnbc, first in business worldwi worldwide. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and steve leisman. we are less than 90 minutes away from the number of the month. this is one we're watching closely because we know the fed is too. this is the august jobs report. it's going to be released at 8:30. the unemployment rate is forecasted to tick down slightly to 4.8%. and the u.s. economy is expected to have added 180,000 jobs last month. that compares to the huge number that we got in july, 255,000. but that 180,000, if we see a number like that steve leisman tells us at least it's much more likely we will see a fed hike on september 20th. check out the markets. right now the dow futures down by 5.5 points. the nasdaq up by just under 2.
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we have some breaking news this morning from the clinton campaign. john harwood joins us now with more. >> you talked about in the intro mylan and how it's under the gun. hillary clinton is taking advantage of that fact and coming out with a new plan to indicate how she would try to stop controversies like the price hikes for epi-pens which we saw blow up in the news last week. she's announcing that she is going to propose a consumer response team that would monitor price hikes of that kind that would have the capacity to act in several different ways to try to respond to it. one would be to speed the approval of alternative products or try to get competition on the market. the second would be emergency importation of alternative products. and penalties on officials they think are being abusive in their price hikes. don't know how all this stuff
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would work, don't know what within this plan would be subject to legal challenge. but yet we haven't heard from the donald trump campaign on it. this is hillary clinton taking something in the news and indicating that she shares the public's frustration and would do something about it. >> we don't need a cpfb or something, do we? do we need another agency? watch dog to look at this? >> well, certainly that will be part of the debate, absolutely. >> yeah nop doubt. and kind of the the scary thing is on the republican side they're not going to want anything like that. then you say who knows. you know? in terms of the free market. we're not really sure at times necessarily. >> it's one of those times where the free market and the glories of the free market run up against difficult problems when
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you're dealing with social issues, with things that affect people in society in ways that arouse a lot of anger. >> it's when the free markets aren't free. >> that's right. >> the way you get patent protection. you get these artificial monopolies because of government getting involved to try to -- as it always does, trying to do something good. then there's these unintended consequences. >> we've got a mixed economy. and it's as you say, free markets aren't completely free. and when should they not be completely free. and how should they not be completely free? that's part of the politics. >> if they were free, there would be competitors. one would come in and do it for $200. then next one would get more innovation. and do it for $100. >> that would be good. >> then you've driven it down to the way you're supposed to work. >> this is a subject you know a lot more about than i do. why isn't there somebody who
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competes with mylan and does a -- >> because the fda turned down the application. >> this thing's been around since 1902, epinephrine. they're talking about the way it's delivered. because the "pulp fiction" way through the chest wasn't the way they wanted to. >> i still want the fda there protecting our health and seeing what's released, but there are a lot of cases where the fda is moving too slow. >> and meg tirrell is here. this is what we've talked about a lot. with some more reaction to what hillary clinton is proposing. and you can also talk about what happened here. it was a weird confluence of some messed up developments in terms of the epi-pen that allowed this to happen. >> some people referred to it as this perform storm. not only did -- was teva the generic competitor rejected by the fda. but then another pulled off the market. we saw this continued monopoly.
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interestingly in hillary clinton's plan today the thing that stuck out to me at least from kind of how the drug industry will respond to this is the idea that there will be this committee deciding which price hikes to focus on. and which companies to fine for unjustified price hikes. she specifies they are for drugs that have been long on the market. does that mean a daraprim which is what shkreli raised the price on overnight. or does it mean like biologic drugs that don't have competition and have also seen prices increase. i think the response from the drug industry may be uncertainty and that's never good. and hillary clinton certainly has scared drug industry investors quite a bit. >> i mean, we're talking about some form of central planning. we're putting the smartest people we can find in a position of power in washington to decide what's fair and what isn't. >> unfortunately it's not -- >> it'd be -- in a perfect
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world, you wouldn't do it that way. >> unfortunately it's not just shkreli that was doing this. they're an outlier. >> but it always has in common that there's not competitors. >> but that assumes that people are going to be the worst possible actors. >> maximizing profits is not characterized by worst. that's what corporations do. >> price gouging is. and there's a fine line between what some of the companies are doing. >> okay. then how do you decide you can only allocate capital and pricing -- >> i'm not arguing for central planning. but -- >> but how do you -- okay. so what profit margin is -- what's the good one for people? >> i don't know. but jacking a price up by 600%? >> i'm just saying that you cannot subjectively decide what something should be priced. because -- >> i agree. >> intel's 60% margins, they're great -- >> but there's a difference. >> you don't try to determine the difference. you let the capital -- do i
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think what? >> do you think mylan screwed up with what they did? and then their response to it once they got called out. >> capitalism in its purist form, things like this is going to happen unless there's competition. look, you always try to maximize profit for shareholders. that's what you try to do. >> that's what you do. right. what does government and society do? does government maximize life? isn't that the job of government? >> government to make sure -- needs to make sure that they're not part of the problem with regulatory mistakes that cause things to happen this way. >> but how do you do it when a company sets a price on a life-saving drug? >> obviously this is why we're talking about it right now. >> but how does the market -- i'm with you on this. tell me how the market fixes the problem. >> fixes it because heather bresch is probably going to lose her job and now mylan has this black eye. we had a guy coming on the other day saying he wasn't making a value judgment.
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it was fred hassan. >> but that's government coming down. >> but saying the problem -- the mistake mylan made was not understanding that this was going to tarnish the company. not making the mistake of trying to maximize profits. >> but we have a guest coming up, new york city comptroller to argue about this. not from a government perspective but as a shareholder. >> it's different because it takes five years to develop these things. >> i get that. >> then they have this 12-year patent protection. >> becky was talking about a balance between letting the free market do its thing and some form of oversight from the government. let meg weigh in because she's the expert. >> i think the issue becomes when people can't access the drug, you know, before we become angry, we have this outcry over the high drug price. when you have people who can't get access to the drug, that's where the issue is. i was talking with an analyst yesterday who agreed with joe. he said the system is you're supposed to maximize profits.
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but if you go too far, you start to destroy shareholder value. because you've raised the price too much. >> that's fine to look at it like that. >> that's not the issue. that's the free market and that would work. the question is what if you're at this point of profit maximization and you've precluded the affordability of the drug to people who have to have it. >> that's also a problem. >> but you could be maximizing profit and not life at the same time. >> no. i don't see it -- i don't know what you mean by that. if you get to the point where you've priced it so high that people can't get it, then you're not maximizing profits. >> you're not going to be selling either. right. >> by definition. >> but do other industries have this same kind of price inflation? >> no. >> college education. >> medical and pharmaceutical. well, that's right. but very few have this kind of ethical dilemma around the pricing. intel could make 60% and people wouldn't be out there screaming.
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>> then you do make it like the fire department. because they're not going to be profitable in certain areas. and you do -- if you decide that it needs to be that way. but no at the same time with the drug industry when you do that. >> i think some people -- >> by the way, i'm not arguing for central planning. i don't think that works either. >> what hillary clinton just proposed is more central planning. >> okay. >> meg, thank you. >> thanks, guys. let's talk about the other big story of the day which is the bulls looking for the jobs report. they want to put the case for better second half growth back on track after that really disappointing manufacturing report yesterday. that the manufacturing index went into negative territory. it's been seen as an aberration by some economists. others out there say it's the sign of a recession to come. they're really worried about it. estimated to grow by 180,000. unemployment ticking down 0.1%. some of the data that's come
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out, positive ahead of it. adp was at 177,000 in jobless claims. they've been low. the economic data so far has pointed to a decent second half rebound. call it around 2.5% to 3% growth. so far a decent jobs number could be number to give the green light to hike. others don't think so. some doves on the federal committee, they would oppose such a move strongly. the market seems to agree with those doves. here's what the futures market looks like this morning. we're at about a 26% chance of a september rate hike. it was up about 0.3% from yesterday which was a big decline on the ism, guys. all right. joining us now, vince reinhart. vince, it's good to see you. there are two kinds of people in the world. i don't mean dog and cat people although they're very different. but there are people who think a rate hike would be the worst thing in the world to do at this point. then there's other people who
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say what are you waiting for? this is really important we get started. or at least continue along what supposedly a hiking is a hiking cycle. >> i think we're supposed to be in a hiking cycle. and i'm not sure exactly what damage would be associated with a 25 basis point federal funds rate. especially if you convey that maybe all you'll do this year and maybe only a another two next year. i think the u.s. economy is pretty resilient. we've had policy for a long time. we are getting the kind of growth we can get in the long run. i think we got to wrap our minds around the notion that potential output growth is only 1.5%. and that outcome like i think for non-farm payrolls of 175,000 jobs created is probably twice the pace consistent with keeping the unemployment rate unchanged. >> why can't we do 3.5%, vince? gdp. >> if we only could, i would be
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right behind it. >> why can't we? >> that's a hope. why can't we? because you were talking about some of the issues about regulation, about sclerosis in concentration in business. we got a lot of challenges. one thing isn't about legislation. it isn't about regulation. it's about demographics. population growth is slower. and if population growth is slower, then you can't produce such an increasing rate. for some reason or another, productivity growth is slower too. we're not getting as much output per hour increases in that environment. we're flying the plane slower and closer to the ground. >> i can think of it both ways. you know, so many times -- how many times have we heard that when you say it's different this time that you know that it's probably not or that it may be different around the edges. am i really at this point in my
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lifetime and we're both young men, vince. there will never come a time where i say, wow, we're really back in the -- we're really back in the growth days of the united states again. remember when it happened after the '70s and we thought it would never happen again. and it did happen again. not just 3%, but we had much better numbers. demographically that's impossible? or just because the structure problems are so intractable for the political environment, it'll never happen again? >> absolutely not. let me say two i think thes. in my household, we never say this time a different. but second is economists didn't recognize productivity growth slowed in 1973 until about 1980. we're just not good at understanding the upside lying forces. you cannot rule out there will be technological progress. productivity growth is slow and it isn't just because we're not
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adding as much capital as we're used to, it's technology isn't improving as fast which doesn't actually sound right in the world of driverless cars and 3d printing and genetic engineering. so part of it might be mismeasurement. but it probably isn't all mismeasurement. for some reason or another, the u.s. economy is growing more slowly on a sustained basis. in six out of seven g7 economies, the imf has marked down their potential output growth. >> this may be the most boring part of this conversation -- >> that's why you're here today. that's why we invited you. go ahead. >> steve, we're talking economics. and the bar for boring is pretty low. >> we do the best we can, vince. >> you do. >> when guys like eric start talking about financial stability concerns, am i reading it right that there are doves on the committee that are getting more nervous and that makes the probability for the hike lower
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than the market believes? >> yeah. i don't believe the probability is right. i don't think it's as high as you think because they see a very gradual pace of re-normalization. and the difference between tightening in september and december is not all that great. like you do i think they're going to tighten this year? they're a little worried about zero. they're worried about financial stability. they're worried about what they would do the next time if the economy falters and the policy rate is so low. you know, we were at jackson hole and the least convincing part of chair yellen's speech was the part where she said, oh, i'm confident that our conventional/unconventional tools are sufficient. that really did seem like a stretch. >> we've got to leave it there, vince. joe, you're supposed to thank him. >> thanks, vince. >> thank you. >> much appreciation, vince. thank you. i love vince. coming up, hurricane hermine
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making landfall early this morning. it's been drown graded to a tropical storm. but deadly storm surge could bring serious damage. an update on the storm and potential costs are next. check out the futures as we go to break here. i'd still call that pretty flat. we'll be right back. it's scy whn the lights go out. people get anxious and my office gets flooded with calls. so many things go wrong. it's my worst nightmare. eversecond that power r out, my city's at risk. emens digital grid manages and reroutes power, so service can be restoredwithi. priority number one is keeping those lights on. it takes ingenuity to defeat the monsters that live in the dark. what's that? the number of units we'll make next month to maximize earnings. that's a projection. no, it's a fact. bad on hdreds of proprietary and open data sets folded to a real-time,
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welcome back. hurricane hermine has been downgraded to a tropical storm
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but not before it caused problems in parts of northern florida. heavy rain, storm surge causing flooding. today's forecast calls for more rain and strong winds as the storm moves north. let's look at some potential costs of the storm and impact on travel heading into unfortunately the labor day weekend. morgan brennan joins us from savannah, georgia. she was stuck in the weather all day yesterday for our space series. now you got a twofer on another assignment. >> reporter: that's right. i'm getting a tour of hermine's path here. here in savannah, it may seem like the calm before the storm. we're told it's about to get ugly here in the coming moments over the next hour or so as hurricane or i should say tropical storm hermine blows through this part of georgia. so we've already seen a lot of rain. we've already seen some strong winds. we've already seen thunder and lightning here. driving up on i-95 from florida to georgia, we had some very, very heavy patches of rain and
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lightning coming in that way. the biggest worry here in coastal georgia is really the flooding. so if you can take a look, we've already seen a lot of rain here in the last couple of days. we've already got standing pools of water. the expectation is we could see as much as 10 inches of rainfall along the coast. some areas of the coast in the coming hours. so that's having a big impact on travel here. we've got a lot of businesses that have already closed. schools have closed. the marriott behind me telling me some of the employees have already seen an inundation of cancellations. they've even got a conference group here that is stranded because of flight cancellations. the airport, i will say, is still open. but lot a lot's going to change here as hermine sweeps through the area. guys? >> okay, morgan. thanks very much. stay safe down there. when we come back, epi-pen maker mylan getting a dose of tough talk from new york city controller scott stringer. he is calling on the company's board to make changes.
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and also establish more oversight. by the way, they own over a million shares, new york funds do. they're saying this as shareholders not just government officials. mr. stringer will be joining us in just a bit to talk about it. "squawk box" will be right back.
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all right, everybody. let's check on the market ahead of the jobs data. in the meantime, check this out. the futures are basically waiting to see what happens with the jobs report because that could determine what the federal reserve decides to do with interest rates later this month. september 20th is that fomc meeting. european markets also have been trading a little higher. not a lot but the ftse is up by 1%. steve? >> let's see. taking a look at the 10-year note. 1.58. we've been as high as 1.60 on a
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recent run here. and currency, dollar is stronger, yen is stronger. dollar is stronger against the yen as well. when we return, g20 leaders ready to meet in china this weekend. we'll talk foreign affairs and trade with bob hormats. "squawk box" coming right back. ening-slash-closing night it hit me: hats for cats. everyone said i was crazy. when i went online. i gomy domain, catsthhats.comrogodadd now these things are fee-ly-in' outta here. got a crazy idea you think yocan turn into a success? we know you can and we've got a main forou. go you. godaddy.
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♪ they played this for you, joe. >> i know. what is it? welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. oh, is that why? okay. that's why. i didn't even know. been playing it because jim carey acts like her and does the most annoying sound in the world. that's why i was doing it. now we really did play the most annoying sound in the world for me. we are one hour away from -- from the number of the month. the august jobs report will be released. you know, i'm going to rush this and even get to steve which is, you know -- >> unusual. >> that shows you -- >> how much you like this music. >> every time i talk they play
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it louder. the unemployment is forecast to tick down to 4.8%. expected 180,000 jobs last month versus the big 255,000 we had added in july. here are the futures at this hour. that's the most interesting thing about what happened if we do get anything even middling. because the fed has gone to great lengths now to pretend or at least to imply or to say that september's live and that they will -- they want to do two, supposedly. they'd have to do one now. >> yeah. >> i don't know if i believe them. i think they job own when people get too complacent there won't be one. so december seems if anything, that doesn't even seem -- >> i thought you were tired of all this. 6:00 i asked you you were done. >> i'm exhausted. >> it's a new half hour. >> here we go.
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>> ten years we have one hike and every time we talk about it. >> not quite ten years. we don't want to start without a hike. >> we've had one hike in ten years. i think we had one -- >> every time you guys digress, they're going to play this music for the rest of their show. morning the stories front and center this morning, there are two sets of economics numbers set for release today. at 8:30 eastern along with the jobs report we'll get the government out with the july trade deficit. then at 10:00 a.m. eastern, factory orders as well. pennsylvania has reinstated an $11.4 million fine against uber. rejected the ride sharing argument that the record penalty was unnecessary and excessive. pennsylvania had accused uber of operating illegally in the state without approval. uber plans to appeal. and check out crude oil prices. they are a little higher after a couple of rough days for crude oil.
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yesterday it was down sharply. this morning it's up about 60 cents to $43.77. crude down 7.5% for the week. that's the biggest weekly drop we've seen since january. harley-davidson is cutting jobs. getting rid of 200 positions because it's forecasting fewer shipments this year. and just over half of the cuts are at its plant in pennsylvania. harley's stock up 16% in the current year. august turned out to be a good month for bill ackman. he saw his investment portfolios climb by nearly 6%. they were held by strong gains in valeant pharmaceuticals. down about 90%. he said he never thought he'd be in a stock down by 90%, but the shares last month were up by 30%. despite the move higher, approaching a loss of 14% for the year. and smith & wesson is boosting its full year outlook after the gun maker reported
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first quarter revenue rose more than 40% beating estimates. and i think percentage of households with a gun is at an all-time high. i think it's 44%, 45%. it shows you a lot of times, you know, the -- you know, the more you try to do something that you think is positive -- ♪ the more you try to do something -- >> will you be quiet so they stop playing that music? >> record gun sales. every time we have a terrorist attack and focus on gun control, more people buy some guns. starting september 19th, u.p.s. is hiking shippi inping by 5%. u.p.s. saying the increase is in line with yearly hikes and will help pay for system upgrades and expansion. but doesn't talk about what's happened to the price of oil and gasoline. also samsung is halting sales of its new galaxy 7 note
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smartphone. that coming after reports that some batteries have exploded or caught fire while they were charging. samsung says it has found 35 cases of problems with the battery cells and the company says it will take about two weeks to prepare replacement devices. okay. as g20 leaders prepare to gather in china this weekend, let's bring in robert hormats former undersecretary for economic growth, energy, and the environment. also we have ambassador nicolas burns who served for political affairs and is currently professor -- this is the longest sbree in a long time. professor at kennedy school of government. ambassador burns, thanks for joining us now. let's talk about this g20 meeting it's in schn for the first time. why does that matter? >> well, for the chinese this is just another summit to showcase their power in the world. second leading economy, second
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most powerful military actor in the world. the chinese put stock on acceptance of their role. but they're worried about slow growth at home. also they're worried about the fact they've reached too far, many countries think, in militarizing the islands of the south china sea. the spratly islands. china lost a big court case at the permanent court of arbitration this summer where their legal claim was really eviscerated. and so the chinese are looking for -- they want to manage that issue. but they want this summit to go well on the economic side for economic reasons. and i think president obama would like to work with the chinese to implement the paris agreement of last december. >> does it matter that president obama goes to china with no domestic support for the new trade agreement? >> i think it's a problem.
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his pivot to asia and i think it's the right move strategically to emphasize our strategic relations economic, political, military in asia. i think it's one of the signature initiatives of his administration. and the transpacific partnership is a big part of that. and now it looks as it's going to be very difficult in a lame duck session to get it through congress. it is obviously a problem for the obama administration. he hasn't given up and he'll be talking about that, but the other leaders i think have to understand that american politics are going in a different direction right now. >> bob, the world certainly seems in retreat. certainly from the time that we met in the '90s when the world was growing bigger. and now it's getting smaller and what's happening in the united states with some of the issues around immigration and trade are not just unique to america. how much does that matter it's shrinking? >> it matters a greet deal.
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the world was going to continue to expand. there'd be more trade and global finance. and trade has shrunk, global finance has shrunk. there's much less support around the world for globalization. there's more xenophobia. anti-foreign sentiment. >> and you can't point to hillary clinton as the champion of trade. because she's not. she's as, you know -- wants to build walls -- not quite the same. >> you're starting a fight with bob. you didn't say she was. did you, bob? >> no. but there's pressure. that's the point. there's no support for new trade agreements. if anything, there are people who want to turn back the clock and eliminate the trade agreements we've gotten. this presents a big problem for china. because china depends heavily on exports. many of the countries that will be there, france, germany, britain, many of the countries
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suffer from this nationalistic pressure to cut back on their global presence. and global engagement. >> i've had to spend a couple weeks with central bankers and international economists. and what struck me -- the thought i had after all that is i believe we all have forgotten how central trade agreements and economic cooperation are to security. the idea that europe got together and created all these economic agreements so that they didn't fight each other. that one of the things that underpins tpp is security. one of the things that brexit, in fact, undermines the u.s. and europe. have we forgotten the idea we're o -- one of the reasons was security reasons to keep everybody from killing each other? >> well, i think you're right. i think there's a real link between economic trade, economic cooperation, economic growth and security. we saw it with the rise of the european union. we certainly have seen it in asia over the last 20 to 30
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years. it's something we've got to keep going. i think the major culprit here is donald trump. in many ways he's gone after nafta and hasn't told the truth about nafta. and he's created this climate of fear and protectionism. >> but i want to push back on that. because i want to -- >> we ought to be self-confident enough to be able to trade and export with some confidence that we can succeed in trade. >> i really don't think that's right in that yes donald trump has said terrible things about trade and he's demagogued that issue. but you can't do go to say hillary clinton is the one out there championing it or the democratic party. bernie sanders did as much or as much against trade as donald trump has done. >> there's a big difference. trump has a very protectionist sort of fear mongering mentality about trade and immigration. hillary clinton has made a couple of specific points. one, she doesn't like tpp in the current form. >> she said she's not going to support it now. she's not going to support it. >> there's a big difference
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between not supporting that and being a person who whips up fear about -- >> if you're japan and listening to this, you realize neither administration is -- >> that's the problem i think nick's put his finger on. and that is -- and you mentioned it. i went to see with my wife fdr hyde park. the period at that point, the people who led the country at that point understood that if you want strong political relationships you need solid economic ties and therefore strengthening economic ties with europe or part of strengthening american security. the point behind tpp is very important. it's not only to strengthen the economic ties but the underpinning of the relationship with asia. and the same in europe. developing a closer economic trade relationship with europe will strengthen the underpinnings of nato. you need a strong economic relationship to underpin strong political and security relationships. if we don't have those, it
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really deprives us of a key element both in europe and asia. >> we got to go. ambassador burns, last word. anything key coming out of this g20 meeting here? >> i think the attempt by president obama and xi jingpi jingping -- i would say i agree with bob hormats. it was bernie sanders and donald trump who've really created this climate of fear against trade. hillary has not been part of that. >> i agree. okay. thanks very much prp you sticking around? >> you want me to stay, i'll stay. >> oh, okay. all right, becky. when we come back, new york city's comptroller looking for mylan to provide more oversight. in the meantime, check out the futures. again they've been flat. really flat. as we await the jobs report out in just 45 minutes' time. stick around. we'll be right back.
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welcome back to "squawk box." in other headlines this morning, retailer aeropostale selling
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with a bankruptcy auction for a little over $243 million. google has canceled plans to build a smartphone with interchangeable parts. that's interesting. according to "the wall street journal" the idea was to allow users to customize their phones to their likings. and yum brands is selling stake in its china operations. made up of chinese investment firm prima vera capital. verifone is cutting its fourth quarter and full year outlook. after the technology maker's third quarter revenue missed estimates. and gap same store sales fell by 3% in august. dragged down by a 10% decline at banana republic. a fire this week at a distribution center is limiting the time of online orders. that stock was down significantly on the news.
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the new york city comptroller's office issuing a letter to mylan on behalf of the pension funds to express alarm with the company's price hikes for the epi-pen and the risks these actions pose for the long-term value. that letter goes on to say that mylan's, quote, gross mismanagement of its epi-pen pricing strategy exacerbates the strategy. which has prompted widespread investor concerns and repeated oppositio oppositions. the new york city funds holds over 1 million shares of the company. it's valued at about $45 million. joining us is scott stringer. thanks for coming in. >> nice to be back. >> we think of government officials who crack down on things like this doing it from the public health perspective. but you're coming at this from the shareholder perspective. >> there's no question that a public health ramifications to what they're doing. but equally important is the
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reputational harm, the legal issues, and the regulatory concerns around the epi-pen price gouging. and that does impact the share owners like myself, our pension fund has a serious investment in mylan. we always have been concerned about their aggressive ceo compensation. we are calling for an independent board that can right this ship and they should do it now. >> what specifically measures would you propose? this is about making sure the board gets rid of its non-independent directors. >> i don't think they have independent directors. i think it's a smoke screen. if this is an independent board, i couldn't imagine what a stacked board looks like. and i think they have to recognize right now that they have -- they're facing some serious issues. legal, reputational, and regulatory. we want to make sure a board has a long-term strategy regarding this company and a long-term strategy regarding the price of epi-pen.
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>> with the netherlands inversion, there's no way to mess with the board. the shareholder activism is nonexistent here and those guys are entrenched. are you really looking at it realistically you're going to do something with the board? >> we continue to vote our shares in a way that tries to raise awareness and moves the board to do the right thing. look, if you think about the health implications of this, that's also valid to me. parents don't just go out and buy one epi-pen. they buy many. one's in the car, one's in the house, one's in your pocket. >> at school. >> exactly. and they expire every year. so to price gouge children's health is outrageous to me. >> to protect a takeover from teva pharmaceuticals last year moved to the netherlands. there's this foundation, an independent foundation that is going to protect it. at the time it was done. so even if they voted for the takeover, it wasn't going to
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happen. why should the company pay any attention to what you're saying even as a shareholder with a million shares? >> because we're a shareholder with a million shares. >> do you think it's going to be effective? >> i think that when they get called before congressional committees and they explain their recent debacle, i do think there will continue to be an outcry for more independence on this board, more strategic thinking about the long-term strategy of this company not because they're trying to up the compensation package of the ceo and others. that's something that has to come out. >> you think the company's tone deaf? >> i think this company has serious issues based on independence, oversight, and a long-term strategy. this epi-pen debacle is just the latest in just poor management by the board, lack of independence, they don't ask the tough questions. how do you have an epi-pen that was, you know, a hundred dollars you pay in 2007 and now it's
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$600 up 500%. this is a life-saving -- this is a life-saving drug for people. >> are they making a market mistake by not setting a price that maximizes the profit to the company? or is this a situation where the government needs to come in and regulate the price of his epi-pen? >> i think they've overplayed their hand. i think this is price gouging. i'm going to leave it to others to think about those issues right now. i'm concerned about the independence of this board. firefighters, teachers, the people who i represent on the pension fund are very concerned about the reputation issues surrounding this. this is why we've taken this action to communicate with mylan, to urge them to do a number of things. >> your ooir has been focused on the board here. what do you think about the ceo heather bresch? >> i think when we think about the board, we think about the
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person in charge. and i'm looking forward to her spending some time with some regulators and perhaps some committees in congress explaining the price gouging of something that is needed by parents and children all over this country. and i quite frankly don't know how she can sleep at night knowing that there's a real risk that people can't get this product that can save lives of children. >> has the company doubled down and said it was middle men along the way who was raising prices. they're not going to be releasing a generic form of it. is that enough of a response as far as you're concerned? >> it's a weak, late response. look, i'll take it. but we're not at the end of this. this is only the beginning. and we need to make sure that this company is doing the right things by the people in this country and the world. but also as a share owner of the fourth largest pension fund in the united states, as somebody who is the fiduciary of that
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fund, we want to voice as we have a right to do our concern as share owners. >> thank you so much for coming in today. >> thank you. when we come back, he latest on tropical storm hermine and whether or not your holiday weekend is going to be rained out. and then the number we've all been waiting for. it's the jobs report. that estimate is for 180,000 jobs. our jobs panel will be joining us at the top of the hour to tell you what they think is going to happen. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪
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a quick stock to watch this morning. lululemon. this is a yoga-wear maker and it did beat estimates by 1 cent for its recent quarter. but you can see the stock is down. >> on the guidance. >> did a nice year for the stock but now down. coming up, becky you want to sing that lyric? ♪ the final countdown >> the jobs report is on. our expert panel is standing by and ready to go. i asked for human being, i could not get any music. this is not my favorite song. we're going to have predictions and what it means for fed speak. we'll have the numbers coming up. look at the futures as we head to the final countdown. we're now in negative. it's flat all morning.
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it's a number that could set up the fed for a september rate hike. our expert panel is standing by with lightning fast analysis. it's jobs friday, september 2nd,
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2016. and the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and steve leisman. andrew's off today. and the countdown is on. just 30 minutes now from the august employment report. polled economists say that nonfarm payrolls increased by 180,000 in august and the unemployment rate is expected to tick down 0.1% to 4.8%. there's lots of other stuff. hours works and participation rate and, you know, whether there was any increase the the average worker's wage. all that. we have expectations for and so
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we need a lot of people to talk about it at 8:30. let's get a check on the futures ahead of this. you can see we are in the red but it's basically flat. after a mixed session after a mixed weekend. and actually august was not a great month. because in mid-month we started thinking the fed might hike again in september after we thought that one -- >> 255. >> but then it came off. and they tried to put it back on. but we're only at 35%. >> 27. >> weak ism numbers yesterday. the manufacturing numbers fell below 50% which signals a decline in manufacturing activity. >> what's the combined for this year? >> i have december at 50.2. >> so probably not by september. and only 50/50 for december. >> yeah. >> now, does that -- do you think people know this may not be a great number because of
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manufacturing. therefore because that will move up if this is 200-plus, that would be above 35%. >> you would think so. but there are people who will do it before the election. >> regardless of the number. where did september go? >> there was a lot of speculation on what the number is. one would think is a slam dunk for the hike. >> what does it go to? 60%? >> you would think it would be over 50% at that point. >> but you argued even if the number comes in below expectations -- >> i think -- look, i don't know how seriously people are taking this financial stability thing that was talked about. then i got stan fisher who told me directly that he thought, you know, september was possible and maybe more than one this year were still possible. i had a sense from people on the board that some people wanted to hike. and they don't know how the opposition is. some of the people who matter. some of the people who matter.
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the democratic nominee proposing a response team to monitor drug price hiex. to impose penalties on companies for what they call excessive increases in cost. yum brands is selling its stake in its china operations. the buyer is a concoursortiumco. they are in the process of being spun off and will begin trading o an separate company on the new york stock exchange that begins in november. and samsung is halting sales of the note 7 smartphone. following reports some batteries have exploded or caught fire while charging. they have found 35 cases with the battery cells. and the company says it will take about two weeks to replace some of those devices. few stocks on the move this morning. gap same store sales falling 3%
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in august. dragged down by a 10% decline at banana republic. separately gap says a fire at a distribution center in new york is slowing the fulfillment of some online orders. smith & wesson out with revenue rising more than 40% beating estimates. and back to today's top story. the august jobs report. let's get to our panel. joining us now austan goolsbee, economics professor at my new favorite university. i've got -- >> always your favorite. >> no, no. finally someone took a stand. and i want you to know this is not a safe place for you here. and i might trigger something any minute for you goolsbee. >> it never has been. >> it hasn't been. >> wait, wait. i want a trigger warning. if you're going to to do it, i79 a trigger warning. >> i'm going to be microaggressing all over you today. >> what? >> yeah. >> that sounds disgusting. >> microaggressing.
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>> also gender fluidity as well? >> princeton and other schools also signed on. austan, you had to draw the line. we have to. it's insane. >> look, the reason i always keep coming on the show is the university of chicago taught me it's okay to stand up. you can talk to people who don't agree with you. >> no kidding. god, what is with these little -- these kids? i don't get it. i mean, if they hear something that goes against the way they think, they go hide and cry? i mean, it's nuts. and the professors are -- and you're not one of them. but -- >> joe, i thought you'd have more sympathy for that attitude. >> joe, joe. jobs. >> oh, yeah, yeah. yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. okay. all right. john sylvia, diane swonk, and peter navarro. and peter, we just needed you
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because goolsbee -- god, whenever he gets a chance, he gets so -- >> rare form today, joe. come on out to uc irvine, my friend. >> yeah. he gets so political with a lot of these numbers. and, you know, swonk isn't exactly in the middle either. good to see you, peter. i'll go back to you diana, what's your number today now that i've referenced you. >> probably from a disparaging way, but i'm looking for 175. it's a little light. something well over 200,000 would tip the scales. 255,000 would be a slam dunk for the fed. but i'm still more on the fence about september. but if this number comes out really strong, they talk to steve. steve, the people who you didn't talk to are as vong as the people you did talk to. the fact we saw stan come out not just once but twice is important. >> so austan, i can't remember where for awhile you were glum,
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sullen, merose. now where are you? >> i'm at 178. i hope the fed doesn't raise, but you know, i think they've been itching for a long time. they want to. i just think if you look around the world, wow. china is still slowing down. europe still has a bunch of problems under the hood there. so it makes me nervous. >> peter, where you might disagree with austan and we'll get your number, but for years i've tried to tell austan that maybe some of our slowness, sluggish economy and this terrible -- you know, the worst repound in post-war is due to -- it's self-inflicted. you look at the rest of the world and might not have caused that, just us. and that we're doing better than they are anyway. do you think we could have done better the past seven years and can do better in the next eight? >> well, donald trump's going to take us to doubling that growth
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rate, joe. the way he's going to do it is by ending this structural imbalance globally on trade. that's been the problem. we don't have currencies that adjust these balances. so everything's slowing down. but today's number is irrelevant to me. becky quick had it right. yesterday's number kind of took the drama out of it on ism manufacturing. both down. we're in recessionary territory on the ism. and don't forget today, the other big number which is far more important to me is the trade deaf stit which will come in at $44 billion or so. so no rate hike in september. i don't want your listeners to leave and go to the hamptons right now, joe, but that's kind of where i'm seeing this chess board. >> peter, yesterday in -- it was two days ago in mexico, donald trump started talking about something that you and i talked about which is this idea that
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there's a north american supply chain that's out there and really seemed to moderate at least his tune when it came to his concern and his attitude towards the idea that the role that mexico plays in the north american supply chain. has there been a change in the outlook on trade? >> not at all. that was a great point that we've talked a lot about. i mean, the problem here and that goes back to see. china for 15 years had it really good with its unfair trade practices but steadily weakened the u.s. and europe. but now both of our economies are too slow to support china in the manner in which it is accustomed to. so if we have a strong hemisphere -- if we have a strong economic engine here, by definition that's going to be at the cost of china. which ships stuff to mexico and then they ship it here.
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so donald trump's view is that we need trade deals, the trump trade doctrine is clear. no trade deal unless it increases our gdp, reduces our trade deficit, strengthens the base. working with mexico is a great way to do that. the problem is that china drains off our vitality and hurts us. so strengthening that relationship, steve, is going to be a way to do that. >> john, do you want to say anything about the concerns you may or may not have about where trade is going and the importance of some of these trade agreements to the u.s. economy? >> the trade agreements are very, very important. i would start out by simply saying our estimates are 176,000 in terms of jobs. i think the construction jobs will be positive. that's good for house and commercial real estate. when you look at restaurants, leisure, and health that's all good for the american consumer.
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so i think there is some positive there. picking up on your point with respect to manufacturing, the numbers were disappointing yesterday. and it does lead us to think that manufacturing will be i think pretty flat overall. one final point overall is there's that with -- not being in the survey that average hourly earnings are a little bit less than trends. then finally on trade, yeah. to me, steve, is too much of this free trade and not free trade. you know, trade is never free. it's always somewhere in between. it's always a constant period of negotiation. and as you and i know, you know, when we think about josh nash and a beautiful mind, trade is a constant negotiation for the next 50 or 100 years with canada and mexico and china and our major trading partners. it's just going to happen and we have to learn to negotiate and change our trade agreements over time with modest adjustments.
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>> all right. >> you wanted to go back to diana, i thought. >> i did. i just got the -- courtney's running the show. and i was not nice to her last time because i blew through a break. i wanted to b nice. >> he's being respectful. >> i'm being respectful. unless i can ask diana a question. courtney, what do you think? >> you used your time. >> concede the time of your balance back. we're going to stick around with your panel. some news just crossing the wires. ireland's cabinet has agreed to appeal the eu's recent ruling. that ruling assessed a $1$14 billion tax big against apple. this is interesting though because the eu wanted ireland to take another $14.5 billion in taxes that it would collect. ireland saying no thanks because in the short-term it may help it in the long-term it will hurt it in terms of being able to attract companies there to hire. very interesting case.
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we're going to be watching this closely. and coming up, it is jobs friday so we're finding out where the jobs are. turns out, the secret service is hiring. our very own kate rogers went through special -- this is a great story. i heard her talking about it yesterday. but does she have what it takes? the right stuff. here's a sneak peek. "squawk box" will be right back.
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♪ it is employment friday. time to find out where the jobs are. kate rogers joins us live from a secret service training center in maryland. kate, can you tell us where you are or is that secret? >> reporter: it's not a secret, steve. this is part of the training facility in beltsville, maryland. with presidential campaigns in full swing, they need a new presidential detail come january. and the fact that 17% of uniform division and special agents are eligible to retire. the secret service is on a mission to hire. attracting applicants is the easy part. it's getting them through the
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rigors of the training that's tricky. if you're looking for a high energy, hard charging career, the secret service may be right for you. and they're aggressively hiring. >> we need someone who is a self-starter, self-initiator, just a high caliber, high quality individual. >> reporter: only between 10% and 12% of 22,000 applicants the agency received for uniform division and special agents this year will make it past best qualified onto the background check. >> we do have a very rigorous hiring process that includes a series of interviews, a background investigation, we deploy a polygraph as well as drug screenings. >> reporter: uniformed officers are usually in washington, d.c. where is the others are anywhere. >> require a lot of travel, requires relocation throughout your career. >> reporter: she says the agency hires people with diverse
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academic backgrounds and prior law enforcement experience is not necessary. what matters more is willingness to serve. >> you're going to have to be flexible and be able to adjust at a moment's notice. >> reporter: so salaries here can be pretty lucrative. $45,000 a year on the low end. close to $100,000 on the high end. and they're looking to bring on 1200 new employees through the end of the time. and also people in administrative professional and technical roles. back over to you. >> kate, we heard that you actually tried out for the secret service yourself. was it incredibly tough and how'd you do? >> reporter: well, becky, i really gave it my all. i don't think i have what it takes. it was incredibly challenging. the job is just so insanely physical. i mean, from shooting to going through control tactics where they put you in the position of a protectee.
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they pretended i was president obama and protected from a number of devices. you gets toed around and have to be in peak physical condition. it's something to see. we'll show you more of that coming up on "squawk on the street" around 10:30. >> did you fire live ammo, kate? >> reporter: i sure did. i fired a semiautomatic rifle and missed the target every single time except for one shot. >> you had a semiautomatic pistol there, too. did you fire that? i just saw you. what was that? >> reporter: yeah. so that wasn't live ammo. that's actually a virtual simulator where you have to respond to active shooter training drills. so you go into -- for example, i did one in a movie theater where you're responding to an active threat there. so i did hit the target once on that. but i need to work on my shooting a little bit if i want them to hire me. >> all right. great. steve, you're in the market for a virtual stimulater, oh
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simulator they said. sorry. i'm thinking of something -- yeah. you were talking about something different. anyway, coming up the economic number of the morning. >> by the way, you were asking steve that, not kate. just for anybody that was not on camera. >> i was asking steve leisman because andrew's not here. it's just that chair. >> is it almost 9:00? are we almost done here? >> it's almost 8:30 though. guess what that means. >> can we get the number? >> it's not you. it's the chair. the august jobs report -- >> i think it's just you. >> maybe so. just minutes a i way. i resemble that. stay tuned. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. better... a. i hel hpitalslspersonalize trs better... a. using billions of f ta points. i hel hpitalslspersonalize trs better... a. and working with medic to predicthe highs and lowof d. and i am working with orreco to useiomark data to boost the performance athletes.
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welcome back to "squawk box." i'm morgan brennan live in savannah where tropical storm hermine is fast approaching. the biggest concern here perhaps is flooding with as much as ten inches of rain expected along the coast. now, here in savannah many businesses have already closed down including the port of savannah which is the fourth largest container port. the industry also in focus given that hermine was a category 1 when it made landfall in florida. it's already been downgraded to a tropical storm. many analysts expect the effects to be relatively manageable for commercial property insurers. and the flooding coverage is backed by the federal
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government. still, companies to keep an eye on in georgia. homeowners insurance, by direct preem yums written are state farm, allstate, usaa. also liberty mutual and travelers. in florida where hermine became the first landfall hurricane in 11 years, names to keep an eye on there universal holding, tower hill, and state farm. stay tuned to "squawk box." after the break we've got the big august jobs report coming. coming back after the break. where, in all of this, is tthe stakes are so high, your finances, yo future. hodo youolve this? you don' you partner with a firm that hadvises vernments and the fortune 500, and, caneliver insight pson to person,on what matts. morgan staey. and, caneliver insight pson to person,on what matts.
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♪ ♪ the final countdown welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. it is time for the final countdown to the jobs report. just a couple of minutes away. let's get some predictions from our jobs panel. steve is here. he has not given his prediction yet. what are you thinking? >> 142,000. i did say that. my model is weighed down by the lousy manufacturing report yesterday. >> ism does weigh into it. rick, first time to see you. what number are you thinking? >> well, good morning. >> good morning. >> 188,000. i think it'll be a middle of the road number, of course.
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not because it gives the fed more choices, but probably because they've been pretty tight lately. i think 188,000 will do it. i also think we want to pay very close attention at some point as our guests have said this morning to the trade deficit as well. >> hey, rick, by the way, correct me if i'm wrong, but you were the closest last month weren't you? >> yes, i think i was. >> i think you were. so we'll pay attention to that. diana, i know you gave your number before but for the new audience yoin joining us, tell us one more time? >> 165,000. we do have some giveback i think on education in the public sector. and the weakness in manufacturing i think is there along with we'll see what's going to happen to retail. the real action in retail i think will happen in november. but the retailers are seeing traffic slow. really a secular trend that they just don't know how to deal
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with. >> john, how about you? we are running up on a tight deadline here. >> 176,000 with gains in health and leisure. >> austan goolsbee? >> 178,000. manufacture's not that big a share of total employment in the u.s., so the negative numbers i don't think weigh that much. >> interesting perspective. like that too. and finally peter, how about your number? >> inline or up it's a dead cat. trade deficit at 44 billion. >> folks, again, we are just seconds away from the august jobs report. let's take a quick look at all of the markets so you can see the market reaction post number. right now the futures are flat. have been the whole time. futures down by about ten points. s&p futures off by two. the nasdaq is exactly flat at this point. also take a look at the 10-year note. because this is a pretty important one that we'll be watching. the 10-year right now is yielding 1.578%. rick pointed out for the entire
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month of august with the exception of one day, we were looking at closes of 1.5%. yesterday we saw 1.6% so the question's going to be how does the market weigh in on this? not only the 10-year but also the 2-year. what kind of moves we see there. hampton pearson is standing by at the labor department and he has the number. >> 151,000. august nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 4.9%. average hourly earnings increased by 0.1%. less than consensus. we had some significant revisions, but essentially june revised downward from 292,000 to 271,000. but july revised upwards from 255,000 to 275,000. a net loss of a thousand jobs over the last two months from what had been previously reported. private sector jobs in august up 126,000. job gains, food services 34,000.
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social assistance, 22,000. professional and tech services, 20,000. job losses. mining down 4,000. manufacturing down 14,000. construction down 6,000. the labor force participation rate. 62.8%. the so called real unemployment rate, 9.7%. both unchanged from july. the job gains for the last three months have now averaged 232,000 per month even with this 151,000 for the month of august. so all in all, hiring up but at a much slower pace than we've seen over the last few months. back to you guys. >> all right, hampton. thank you very much. let's get reaction from our panel. steve, this month you were the closest. >> do i get to take a strut? >> no. >> no strutting? well, the thing that worked nicely about my model here was the weakness in the goods producing sector down 24,000.
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that was a reason to keep a lid on it. by the way, total private sector was kind of lame. just 126,000 while adp called for 177k making up the difference in july and august was pretty strong government hiring. i don't have information on whether that's state and federal or local. but 25,000 in august. and kind of a mixed bag here. the service sector providing all the net jobs here up 150,000. retail doing well which is interesting to diane's point about the secular issue when it comes to bricks and mortar steers. that's done well. actually 15,000. and then finance up 15,000. temp down 3,000 after being up 12,500. that's not a good leading indicator sign. but i forgot who it was. leisure and hospitality, that was up by 29,000. reaction in the 2-year, the dollar weakening. the market is seeing this as a non-fed act there.
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>> i asked you for the fed funds. you can't get it realtime. i don't need it. >> what the dollar does -- >> make rick can tell us. what are the fed fund futures? >> fed fund futures of course are rallying and rallying means less percentages. i'm not going to go into the numbers. it's a mug's game. i do know that if you look at what's going on with the dow, i know steve will say it's the reaction. but the reaction gives you a glimpse into the program trading world and what the programmers and those that funnel into the algorithms, what they think on a moment's notice. will it reverse? maybe. but the whole kbad is good, average is good dynamic is here. you saw it yesterday with the u-turn and the ism number. we have a parallel shift on the entire curve other than the 30-year. if you look to where we were before the number, where we are now, we're basically down two, three basis points from those
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levels. the long bond, the 30-year is very close to the same level it was that does make sense. i think when this ordeal is said and done, other than the fact that you're not going to have any mt. rushmore presence to anybody on the fomc committee, you're going to have a yield curve that's really flat. options trading going wild here. and what they seem to be doing, of course, is trying to get out of any puts they had and buy some calls. >> and steve, you know, when i said if it's 275, the market's going down. >> right. this is the other side of that. >> people still don't want to -- they'd rather not have a rate hike. >> let's get over to diane. >> the interesting thing to me was the instasmaller than expec increase. that's something the fed is watching closely. even though you had made a good point about the fed's threshold for employment gains in a month are not great. but the slowdown in hourly average earnings, that's enough to set people back on the
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sidelines within the fed as well. i think that's very important. we've also got a lot of data to go through before the september 21st meeting. we're going to see more cpi data and retail sales and industrial production. retail sales now going to be light with those auto sales dragging them down as well. >> austan, what do you think this means in terms of the fed? i know you didn't want them to raise rates. does this mean they very likely won't? >> yeah. you know, becky, i think it would require a pretty solid case to raise, i think, for them to weigh in before the u.s. presidential election. i think historically there's a lot of anxiety about the fed interfering with the election. so i don't think this is a strong enough case for them to charge ahead, you know, six weeks or something before the boat. >> to add onto that with austan, the last time the fed was
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raising rates into a presidential election was 2004 that's when they baked in a quarter point far long period of time. which was a different scenario. i don't think the fed stays on the sidelines just because of the election but there is policy uncertainty with this particular election that i agree with austin, there's a lot of reasons to wait on the sideline. i'm somewhat relieved this puts the fed back in december. >> mark says done 2016. start thinking 2017. the markets might end up reversing what happened since they said september was live. >> and picking up additional gains. >> i don't understand the logic of -- i mean, all due respect to diane, the fed has said in no uncertain terms, 100,000 jobs is enough to keep the unemployment rate unchanged. >> i would be shocked in september though. >> i think this is -- for this economy and maybe we'll bring in john here. for this economy, this is what you can expect in terms of the
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levels of growth and the levels of job growth given the levels of demographics. john, forget what you think the sfed going to do, what do you think the fed ought to be doing here with this number? >> again, when we look at the long-term projection with respect to employment over time, i think either september or december is fine. i think they need to do one or the other. at least going forward. kudos to you, steve. we were over in terms of construction and manufacturing. so the good sector of the economy is having difficulty. and then finally i think it's the quirk on the 15th that really explains the average hourly earnings number. so i'm not surprised at the 0.1%. i would say, yes, the fed should go ahead september or december. i think the gate is wide open. the fomc needs to drive through. >> kudu is an animal.
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i don't know why you're giving that to steve. >> just accept the idea that i did something good here. >> is it cooties? >> that would be nice. can we bring peter navarro into this? peter, your trade deficit number was better than expected. not too shabby. less than expected? >> it's a huge trade deficit. so i'm not real happy about that. but let's look at the jobs number for a second in this. as my good friend wilbur ross says, not all jobs are created equal. but the two things that should get your eye is manufacturing is down. and construction was down 6,000. that's the leading indicator. so the obama economy which is the weakest recory since world war ii just got weaker. i said at the top of the hour there's no way the fed's going to raise rates pep and it's not because of this number. it's because of all the other
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numbers. >> hold up. we just added 151,000 jobs. it's hard to say the economy just got weaker. >> actually growth is picking up. >> the trends is down. >> no, the growth is picking up in the current quarter. >> let's look at the reagan scenario versus the obama scenario. reagan scenario -- >> it's not comparable. i don't understand why you're doing that. >> the reagan recession was terrible -- >> engineered by the federal reserve -- >> wow. this is an interesting interruption. we had 4% growth. the obama recovery is a baseline of about 2% or less. 2% or less for eight years. >> without fiscal stimulus. >> the obama economy has generated millions of jobs less than the reagan recovery did starting from -- >> and much more than the bush recovery -- [ overlapping speakers ]
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>> well, we've gone political. let's stay with the investors here. what the investors are seeing now is a slow recovery which is really not going to encourage the fed to raise rates and we're going to have an election which is going to be fought rightly so over economic growth and jobs. because this jobs report is not encouraging the ism manufacturing report is horrible. the auto sales says yes we have troubles ahead. and we'll see what happens. what people want out there in the heartland is both jobs and wage hikes. and this report is not a recipe for that. >> diane? >> yeah. i just want to add one thing. i think it's really important for the federal reserve in terms of how they deal with what we're dealing with in this election year. and there is a lot of acknowledgment. the fed looks at absolute gains from the recession to where we are on a relative basis. we're still catching up from
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2000 for many households. i think that's where the tension is. and the bottom line is we had the worst recession in the post-world war ii period. luckily we didn't have a depression. but it was gredepressing. and those still unengaged are clearly feeling left out. >> and it's millions, diane. >> austan, what about peter's comment about -- >> -- yellen has gone out of her way to re-engage those people. i think that's important. i come from detroit, so i'm in -- >> diane, hold on. let's get to austan's comment here. peter makes a point that we're, what? half the gdp of the reagan expansion and fewer jobs. >> yes and no. i mean, the thing is early in this recovery, all of those statements are true. that it was the slowest recovery. but it has kept chugging along. it's been really the tortoise versus the hare.
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this is now the longest period of private sector job growth ever on record in the u.s. economy. so it's -- >> but millions is 4% for six years. >> less than 2% gdp. come on. wake up, people. how can you make it sound -- we're averaging under 2% per quarter. >> thank you, rick. >> that's all. >> in the bush recovery we were already in recession. that's my point. the thing is continuing. [ overlapping speakers ] >> john, my friend. i want to give you the last word here. john, how lousy should i feel that we added 150,000 jobs? because if i think about this politically, i'm either euphoric or ready to jump off a building here. i'll give you the last word on how people should feel about 151,000 today. >> i think you have to feel positive about it. the demographics of america today are not the demographics of the 1980s or the 1990s. labor force participation rates are down for both male and
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female. and we just see a different america. and 150,000 is actually quite good relative to the longer run demographics of an aging society. >> all right, folks. thank you for our panel. we appreciate it. >> thanks, guys. >> and -- >> what? what? you're smirking. what? >> if you do decide to enter -- if you're making 40 or 50 sitting at home and you do decide to re-enter the workforce, you know you got to get clothes, you got to get child care, you got to buy a car, you got to get gas. so, you know, if you got -- you know, the safety net has expanded. and i'm not saying people -- >> actually not, joe. a lot of states have cut back. especially republican states have cut back on unemployment. >> coming up -- >> and that may have been responsible for the spurt we had in the participation rate. >> which is what we want. coming up, more reaction to the august jobs report. dan suzuki and jim paulsen will
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join us after the fake.
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welcome back. what? yeah. that's what happens when we come back. let's look at the futures right now. you figure they went up a little bit. it's not like, you know, 400 points. but it is 40 points and we were down about 10. so -- >> and this proves your point. >> i don't know if it proves it. >> it's the counterfactual.
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>> but people definitely -- when was that? how long ago was that when they said september is definitely in play? i guess after the last jobs report. after the really solid jobs report. >> it started and then into august, too, when you were out. >> and then jackson hole made it more. if you could put up fed.1, go back a couple weeks if you can, you'll see that spike that happened when we talked to stan fisher into the 30%, 40%. >> prior to that it was -- >> it was up a bit but not a lot. there you go. see, that's too long, guys. that doesn't quite work that way. i'm sorry. >> for people that were -- >> there we go. well done, boys and girls. there you go. >> for people that that's the criticism they're doing it again trying to get a tightening move by just talking about it when they really don't have any intention of doing it, it looks like we were fooled again. >> i think there are credibility issues because there are issues about the framework. we don't understand what it is that causes them to raise rates.
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versus not -- they don't know. and that's what jackson hole was supposed to be. >> we got into this because the fed was using this jawboning when they were lowering rates trying to get the market prepared. >> the whole adoption of forward guidance. you're right. >> we always said this was going to be more dangerous going up. >> despite the stuff you're talking about during the break. incredibly smart. >> despite the idiotic stuff we talked about. >> you got to hear this. anyway, let's get more on jobs. joining us now dan the hipster suzuki. and jim still hip after all these years paulsen. let me start with dan. i don't even know where to start. i mean, is this a good development for the u.s. economy? is it a good development for stocks? are we overly concerned about does the fed raise a quarter point here? >> i think everything you just said. basically i don't want to read too much into one number. to your point we look at these
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past august. these are probably numbers that are going to get revised up. the number we just got between zero and 300 if you use the confidence interval. i don't want to make too much of it. but what concerns me is if you look at the leading indicators in the jobs report, they're actually both pretty negative. ours missed by 0.2. that's equivalent to over 800,000 jobs. the relationship has broken down over the last few years but it is still a leading indicator. >> jim, i'm not even going to ask you a question because i never know where you're going to go with something. i will say jim, jobs, what? >> well, i guess i'm disappointed. i'd like to see them normalize policy. i think that would help investor confidence as well as private sector confidence overall. but i think the key number that i take away to dan's point a
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little bit here is i think hampton said that the three-month average job gain is something like 220-some thousand or something like that. i would much rather see the monetary policy of this being more effected being more affected by some kind of moving average of where we're at than a single monthly number that the vaguerties of that month in and month out. take a look and step back, 200 plus thousand jobs in a quarter with 3% plus growth, on the gdp now numbers with the trade as you said didn't get much play but that's going to be a contribution to help earnings, momentum down and now up again on the backdrop of materials and energy doing better. i think whether the fed tightens or not, i think the markets will be fine but i think if they do tighten, that would be the better thing to go. i think that the show of
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normalization would help. one more point from an investment standpoint. >> real quickly, yeah. >> okay. we've had almost all our post-war history a negative correlation between yield movements and stock price movements and the fed has always tightened when there's been a negative correlation. but right now, we have a very strong correlation in the last six months between the two-year movements and stock market. if the fed were to raise rates in september it would be the first time maybe ever that the fed would raise rates when there's a positive correlation between the relationship between yield and stocks, they could raise rates and the stock market should go up. >> let's leave it there. dan, i'm sorry, we're out of time. >> that's okay. >> dan and jim. >> becky? >> when we come back construction contractors warning of a labor shortage as demand for building booms. more details when "squawk box" comes right back.
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thisll w wthoughgeen programmed machines to talk. ge is an indtrial companythats world-changi machines. machines that n talk to each other digilly. hello? they don't talk to each r liket, ricky. shhhh, you'll ger it. he looks aittle ticked off now.
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earlier we told you where the jobs are. now, to an industry where there's a labor shortage and that is construction. diana olick joins us with more. we found that out. maybe that's why there were less than expected number of hirings there. >> yeah. construction jobs down over 13%
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from a year ago according to today's report. it's not that there aren't enough jobs. it's there aren't enough workers. a full two-thirds of construction firms report they're having a hard time filling positions for skilled workers according it a survey of nearly 1500 firms by associated general contractors of america. worker short age are the most severe in the midwest, 77% of contractors are having a hard time filling positions. the south and west aren't far behind at 74 and 71%. the northeast that's where the least residential construction takes place is faring the best but still more than half of respondents say they can't find enough labor. this as demand for construction grows. construction employment expanded in 239 out of 358 metro areas that the association tracked between july of last year and this year. according to the labor department. the agca says firms are now having to rethink the way they pay workers, that is either paying them more or offering more benefits and/or giving them
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incentives or bonuses, football tickets to tradesmen who will work for them, anything to get these jobs filled. back to you. >> thanks very much. >> coming up more market reaction to the jobs number as we head to break. quick programming note, don't miss u.s. labor secretary tom perez on "squawk on the street" at 9:30 eastern and we will be right back. ♪
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. folks coming up this weekend join us for "on the money." . the chance to speak to country legend and entrepreneur dolly parton. emphasis on tren. an amazing businesswoman. her brand partnerships and why she actually said no to elvis. >> that was just a business decision i had to make at that time. they're not always easy, making decisions but you got to be responsible for your stuff. >> elvis, by the way, wanted to sing one of her songs "i will always love you" but wanted half of the ownership and she never gives away ownership to her songs. so you got to check it out. check your local listings to catch "on the money" in your area. >> you have to be responsible for your stuff. a check on the markets after the jobs report. the u.s. equities were stronger, 48 points, about flat when the number came out.
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the two-year note was, the yield down a bit. where is that now? 77. so kind of on that. >> the dollar was the big pov. >> dollar was a big move. we may not have it. a little bit -- a bit weaker. >> dollar index down. >> thanks for being here. >> my pleasure. >> everybody have a great holiday weekend. joe, see you tuesday. >> i will be here tuesday. >> tuesday. time for "squawk on the street." >> good morning. welcome to "squawk on the street" david faber with sara eisen and kelly evans. the august jobs report showing slower than expected payroll growth up 151,000. the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%. average hourly earnings up 0.1%. let's give you a look at the markets as you can see taking it well as the equity market at this point perhaps pushing off the idea of a fed increase as soon as the next meeting. let's see how european


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